2015: Battle for presidential running mates

As the countdown to the Febru­ary 14, 2015 presidential polls begins, the two leading politi­cal parties, the ruling Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, and the All Progressives Congress, APC, may have stepped up strategic maneuvers to stay ahead of the other.

Part of the strategic imperatives is the choice of the running mates to their presumed standard bearers. On the chart-value, President Goodluck Jonathan who has been rail-roaded into a consensus platform by all the critical organs of his party, PDP, and has slated Novem­ber 11, for formal declaration, is only waiting for “coronation” at his party’s convention. In the APC, all parameters considered, former military head of state and perennial presidential con­tender, General Muhammadu Buhari, retd, is set on the cruise- lane to the presidential ticket. The unfolding de­velopment has effectively implanted a climate of Jonathan/Buhari contest.


With this calculation, the ‘war’ planners have moved down to the base for run­ning mates. In an ethno-religious society, a balancing act in the choice of presiden­tial running mates remains a key issue, and expectedly, has become a ‘catch 22’ situation, with everything thrown into it. It has been real war by other means. Al­though, the Nigerian constitution allows the vice-president to operate at the plea­sure of the president, nothing is being left to chance by the two parties. Entrapping the highly studied, and ferocious nature of the selection process employed, a leader of the Northern Elders Forum, NEF, and former Vice-Chancellor of the Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Prof Ango Abdul­lahi, describes it as a “measured system of national stability, unity and pragma­tism”. He says the dispersal of powers to relevant centers, or groups has the po­tential edge of diffusing tension, reducing pristine acrimonies and dousing perceived differences.
Jonathan and his “sparring partner”
In boxing parlance, ring gladiators for the purpose of training are often de­scribed as sparring partners. They train in mutual vision, strength, and span. Shortly after Jonathan became acting president in 2010, the choice of an acceptable deputy became a hard nut to crack. The dilemma arose mainly because of the preceding testy duel former president Olusegun Obasanjo had with his deputy, Atiku Abubakar, a development that raised hairs and tested the soul of the nation. Being a Christian from a small ethnic Ijaw group, a small kitchen committee he set up, fo­cused mainly on loose considerations of character malleability, and a moder­ate Muslim background. Of course, the searchlight beamed on the governors, who in this dispensation have seized the upper-stage of power levers. The lot fell on the then Kaduna State governor, Na­madi Sambo. The duo went on to win the 2011 presidential elections, and have so far enjoyed a robust relationship. At­tempts by some people in the past to drive a wedge in their relationship had been met with utmost resistance. Fending off accu­sations of duplicity and low political turpi­tude against Sambo recently, the president insisted he is at “home with me”; perhaps, a didactic aphorism suggesting he is satis­fied with his entire contributions to their presidency. Reading the president’s lips and body language in itself, defines the di­rection and choice of his running mate. He has often said he is not a ‘lion’, and func­tions best with politicians with moderate disposition. To his credit, no altercation or tiff has been reported against him with any of his subordinates. Supporters of Sambo draw a lot of strength from this to cali­brate their optimism. However, within the president’s camp are layers of anti-Sambo structures. A good many of them are wor­ried that the vice-president has not dem­onstrated enough clout, and influence in the North to contain the ever growing anti Jonathan sentiments, which are threaten­ing their re-election bid. Those pushing for his ouster predicate it on the changing political times, and the need to draft in a more tested politician that will add more value, and pep to the campaign especially in the North, where Buhari is seen largely as a “cult hero.”
Second Republic member of the House of Representatives, and an arch-critic of Jonathan, Dr Junaid Mohammed, would not be drawn into the debate, as he sees PDP and Jonathan having an outside chance of victory in the 2015 elections.
But former governor of Anambra State, Dr Chukwuemeka Ezeife sees it from providential eyes.
“There are two questions here. Is God behind Jonathan? Is Jonathan popular and acceptable? If God is behind him, and he is also popular, then a running mate issue is not too critical.”
He says that if Sambo is his choice, and he is getting along well with him, he should be allowed to run with him again. Concluding, he argues that “you don’t change a winning team”. But while Sambo is contending with his foes, a recent poll rating conducted by NoI Poll Ltd, situ­ated him as having “the lowest favorability rating while being popular”. He is said to have a net favorability rating of -34. “This very negative rating for the vice-president needs to improve to complement the pres­ident’s net positive favorability rating.”
Some groups within the PDP have picked their National Chairman, Adamu Muazu as a suitable replacement of Sam­bo. The former Bauchi State governor has in the aftermath of his emergence as na­tional chairman earlier in the year, raised stakes in his public perception and popu­larity through a massive turn around in the fortunes of his party. Before he became national chairman, the party was at the crossroads brought about by a swirling disenchantment, unrestrained decamp­ing, and threatened implosion. Through a whirlwind peace and reconciliation pro­cess, he has not only wooed back defec­tors, but has poached from the opposing sides, and entrenched a budding confi­dence and peace in the party. Howbeit the buck stops on Jonathan’s table.
Road to vice-presidential slot in APC
By far, APC has a more ingrained mi­graine in picking a presidential running mate. Having settled for a presidential candidate of Northern extraction, the general perception among pundits is that the party was conceived and built on a North/South west polar axis. This per­ception, therefore, easily lends itself to a South-west running mate for any of the three presidential gladiators – Buhari, Ati­ku Abubakar, and Kano State Governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso.
Apart from the North, the South-west domiciles the largest array of leaders in the APC, and the party enjoys a top- of – the- range acceptance and popularity in the zone. But like shifting sands, the game is changing, with other hot calculations in the fray. Some leaders of the party from the zone, who are mainly queuing behind Buhari are rooting for either the Rivers State Governor, Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi, or the Imo State Governor, Owelle Rochas Okorocha. Their argument for these two men centre on their perceived popularity rating index, activism, and the overriding need to use them to make an inroad into the South-south and South-east geo-politi­cal regions for the party. The calculation is that with the massive support for the party in the entire North, and the South-west, the battle ground should ordinarily move to these two zones, in order to garner 25% voters score across the entire Nigerian landscape. A subsidiary issue of funds has also been raised. Indeed, a chieftain of the party from Ogun State who is a former senator, told Sunday Sun, that, “the im­perative of Okorocha or Amaechi as presi­dential running mate will give the party the brightest chance of victory in the presiden­tial elections. We don’t need to campaign too much here in the South west to secure victory. We need to break the strangle­hold of the PDP in the South-south and South-east. Again, these two men have the funds to support the party and oil our cam­paigns. When you battle an incumbent, you need all the resources you can mus­ter.” The chieftain cautioned the party not to pick a presidential running mate from the South-west, whether a Christian or Muslim, as “it will be self serving”. He told Sunday Sun that he has done a memo on the subject which he was sending to the national leadership of the party in Abuja. But while the ex-senator is leading the search outside the South-west enclave, perennial considerations favour candi­dates from the zone. Sunday Sun checks indicate that the party is built around the personalities of Buhari, and former Lagos State governor Asiwaju Bola Tinubu. The duo have led the party since inception, dic­tating the pace, tempo and structure. They almost single handedly set up the National Executive committee, NEC of the party. Although, the highly influential governors forum has struggled to diffuse their pow­ers, the struggle has been a little too late and puny. Again, the ascendancy of Buhari as the leading aspirant in recent times, conforms to earlier forecasts of a Muslim – Muslim ticket starring Buhari and Tinubu.
Former minister of aviation, Chief Femi Fani- Kayode, some months ago stormed out of the party to the PDP, alleging a well oiled conspiracy to foist a Buhari/Tinubu candidature on the party, which he feared would promote religious tension and dis­harmony. “The greatest disservice to this party is the plot to foist a Muslim-Muslim candidature”, he said in a statement on the crest of his departure. Former president Olusegun Obasanjo who has more than a passing interest in the affairs of the party has also thrown jibes at the plot, which is gaining grounds by the day. To further up the ante, Buhari, the man in the storm, has done nothing to deflate the alleged plot. In a recent interview, he said he has nothing against a Muslim/Muslim ticket, while ad­ducing far reaching reasons to anchor his position. He said “it is not a matter of reli­gion, but a matter of Nigeria”.
Continuing, he rationalized that “this new phenomena of religion is another blackmail political confusionists in Nigeria are bringing to the fore. Religion cannot be an issue because of the religious background of APC lead­ers in the South-west. The wives of Tinu­bu, Oyo State Governor Abiola Ajimobi, Lagos State Governor Fashola, Ogun State Governor Ibikunle Amosun, and former national chairman of the party, Bisi Akan­de are all Christians.” Apparently, this un­derscores the resolve of the party to throw aboard religious sentiments in breaking the ice. For the unwary, a Muslim/Muslim ticket, perhaps in Buhari and Tinubu is sealed, and about to be delivered.
Restive members and chieftains of the party are, however, not giving up. Groups and individuals are intensely mobilizing against the contraption, and for their pre­ferred aspirants. In the last fortnight, fol­lowing extensive meetings and consulta­tions, several names have popped up. The nominations may excite the atmosphere, but the nominators obviously lack the bite and wherewithal to alter the alleged plot.
The No1 Polls on the issue sums it up. “if former head of state, General Muham­madu Buhari eventually becomes the party’s presidential candidate, Tinubu will automatically pair with him, because of their experiences and exposure as former rulers.” If Atiku, or Kwankwaso picks it, Fashola, Oshiomhole, Amaechi, Okorocha and Niyi Adebayo can be nominated for the vice- presidential slot.”
Other gladiators and their chances
A coalition of APC leaders in the North, known as the “change collectives” prefers a Buhari/Fashola presidential pair. The group’s National Coordinator, Abubakar Isham, who spoke to Sunday Sun on tele­phone, said the duo complement each oth­er. He said, “Buhari is disciplined, popular and has integrity. Besides, he has a strong will power to drive the change process. The same goes for Fashola. They have at­tributes that will sell them to their people and win votes for the party.”
He said the South-west people are not sensitive to religion as people are trying to make out, adding that unlike other zones, they always vote for a good leader, irre­spective of his religious beliefs. He cited the August 20, Osun State governorship election where despite the efforts of some people to raise the notion of religion, the people emphatically voted for Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola. He further said; “if Bu­hari wins in the three geo-political zones of the North, and Fashola wins the votes in the South west for our party, what is left for the PDP? We will go to the South-east and South-south and divide their votes. The party is also gaining ground there, with charismatic Governors Amaechi and Okorocha”.
However, the No1 Polls presents Fasho­la or Okorocha running as vice presiden­tial candidate based on some enunciated parameters. The poll explained that “the candidate viability of each potential can­didate was measured by cross analyzing their familiarity with their net perception, positives opinions, minus negative opin­ions.”
“Furthermore, governor Fashola of La­gos State currently has the best candidate viability among potential APC candidates for the 2015 presidential elections due to his high familiarity score -94 percent and positive net familiarity +8.
“The only other candidate that falls in the right upper quadrant with the two aforementioned is Governor Rochas Okorocha of Imo State, and similarly of the APC with a familiarity score of 88 per­cent and net favourability of 0.
Other APC members with slightly nega­tive favourability in spite of their high familiarity include Governor Adams Os­hiomhole of Edo State (-5) and Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano State (-7). “Their slightly negative rating simply im­plies that a slightly larger proportion of Ni­gerians have a negative impression about these candidates compared to those that have a positive impression.”
The man in the hay
In the APC, all the vice-presidential glad­iators are either serving governors or ex-governors. A surprise entrant into the race is the former Lagos State attorney general and commissioner for justice, Prof Yemi Osibajo. The name of the legal icon, who is also a pastor in the Redeemed Chris­tian Church of God is being pushed as a compromise candidate by some chieftains of the party from Lagos State, who prefer the slot retained by the state. The strategy is that should the Tinubu or Fashola aspi­ration fail to pull through, Osibajo, who many within the Tinubu/Fashola dynasty consider as the pillar and prime mover of the rule of law order in the state should be drafted in their stead to continue their leg­acies”. The bug is yet to catch on with the mainstream movement of the party in the state, nay zone. A concerned enthusiast of this scenario, Mr. Remi Adelaja likens Osibajo to the biblical David, a man after God’s heart. He further describes him as a “man without blemish, an intellectual gi­ant, and a moral colossus.”
But despite his towering perception in the minds of those pushing his aspiration, the dream is situated within the realm of a narcissistic search of a pin in a haystack.
As the jostling intensifies, and the ‘D’ day approaches, nothing can be more im­manent than the time tested aphorism that a day could make a world of a lifetime dif­ference in politics.