There can never be a perfect leader. Most leaders do well in certain
respects and fail in other respects. Also, we may never all agree, even
on one area the leader has done well or has not done well. It all
depends on the criteria for assessment. As example: For some people, a
political leader has not done well except he has given them an
appointment, a contract or put money in their individual pockets. He can
kill himself, but as far as they have received no personal benefit he
is no good.
For some others, a political leader can only do well if he is from
their ethnic enclave or he is from their political party. Therefore, he
can commit ‘hara-kiri’ and they will commend him because of their narrow
and myopic prism of assessment. Of course, such assessment can be very
biased and injurious. Nevertheless, it is their own criterion for
assessment. And yet for the enlightened others, they use specific and
objective criteria to assess leadership performance. There maybe some
colorations and nuances, but that’s because they are human. And that’s
why I am not really surprised by the recent comments on the economy
raised by Prof Chukwuma Soludo and a couple of other distinguished
Nigerians. On this score, I endorse Oby Ezekwesili’s call for a debate.
That, to me is the civilised way to conduct a discourse or argument
with the objective of presenting the facts, the figures and insights,
demolishing falsehood or establishing the truth. I do not subscribe to
name calling or demonising of professionals or fellow Nigerians just
because our views do not agree.
Not all Nigerians are gullible. Many have brains that work,
processing all the information they receive, agreeing, disagreeing and
throwing the rest into the garbage. In my many years of Economic
advocacy as a leader in the Manufacturer’s Association of Nigeria (MAN),
the Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association (NECA) and the Nigerian
Economic Summit Group (NESG), I have been schooled by the professors,
the practitioners and economic agents on what shows good economic
management and bad economic management from the private sector
perspective. It is from this standpoint that I want to justify my
conviction that when it comes to the economy, Jonathan has done well,
better than many.
Economic growth
In the years that Jonathan has been president, our economy has grown
between six and seven per cent per annum. This is one of the highest
growth rates in the world, bettered by China and a few other countries.
This is the compounded growth rate that has driven us to become the
largest economy in Africa and the 26th in the world. If this is not a
consequence of good economic management, please tell me what is. Even if
it happened by ‘luck’, we must still give the credit to Jonathan’s
government. Because if the reverse was the case and the economy was in
decline or in stagnation, as we had many years ago, we will still have
blamed it on his poor economic management. If a man can take the flack
for failure, why must we deny him the right to take the credit for
success?
Economic diversification
For ‘n’ years, where ‘n’ is not less than 30 years, we had complained
that we had a mono economy, where oil was everything. But we were
“shocked” to see that we now have a fairly diversified economy, led by
services at 52 per cent, where oil’s
contribution to GDP has declined to 14 per cent from over 33 per cent
in the hey days! And that even agriculture had declined from its
dominant 42 pr cent to 22 per cent because of growth in manufacturing,
which has climbed from less than fur per cent to about seven per cent
and such services as telecommunications and entertainment taking up
measurable positions on the GDP grid at 8.69 per cent and 1.42 per cent
respectively. It is not yet déjavu as we still depended on crude oil
and gas for about 70 per cent of national income until the recent crash
of oil prices, which has now moved our non-oil revenue to about 47 per
cent of the 2015 budget proposals, bringing oil revenue to a healthier
53 per cent. If all this are not as a result of sound economic policies,
some of which were started by the previous governments, then tell me
what is.
Macro-economic stability
For the last four years, Jonathan’s government has sustained economic
policies that had created a stable macroeconomic environment. For the
first time in ‘n’ years, our inflation rate dropped to single digit.
This was a feat previous governments dreamt about but could never attain
.Until very recently, the exchange rate remained very stable, operating
within a narrow band. This made naira almost convertible and allowed
Industrialists and importers plan inventory commitments with greater
ease and less apprehension. Even the interest rates had been trending
down and for once in a long time, Farmers and some industrialists were
able to obtain credit at single digit interest rate or very low double
digits.
This has happened, because Jonathan gave free hand to the
professionals in the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and those in the
ministries of finance, trade and industry, national planning, etc to run
with minimum interference. Additionally, he involved the private sector
in the economic management team where they used real market experience
to balance academic economic theories. If this is not good economic
management, please tell me what is. Some presidents in some countries
have been voted out of office because they could not manage inflation!
Availability of food and other necessities of life
It is easy to take things for granted when they are going well, but
when they go wrong, we come to realise that certain things are more
important than others. People can find time to make an issue of the
reduction in our foreign reserves, because we have plenty of food in the
market. To be sincere, Nigeria has had an abundance of food. Thanks be
to God and thanks to a revamped agricultural environment. I am
personally surprised that after the recent devaluation of the currency,
and some adjustment in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), the prices of
food items in the market remain fairly stable, keeping overall inflation
much lower than I had predicted, which indicates a higher proportion of
locally produced food items. Does anybody remember 1984-1986, when we
had to queue for food items and other necessities, including soaps and
detergents in Leventis Stores and other shops? The days of essential
commodities (essenco) and import licensing, when many companies
including mine, downsized or closed down because they could not bribe to
get enough import licence.
I am sure Nigerians have taken for granted the availability of petrol
and diesel. In the last couple of years, except for occasional hiccups
caused by striking workers (NUPENG & PENGASAN), we have had almost
hassle-free availability of petrol and diesel in virtually every nook
and cranny of the nation selling at controlled and deregulated prices,
depending on your distance from Abuja or Lagos. What is more, the price
of diesel began to come down, helping to reduce cost of production for
industrialists. I have lived in this country for long, and from the
military to now, we have never had a better supply situation. Many times
in the past, we have spent valuable time running around looking for
fuel and sometimes ending up with adulterated or foul fuel. I stand to
be corrected. If all these have not happened because of good economic
management, then tell me what is.
Reducing unemployment
The growing unemployment in Nigeria hit the peak in 2010 following
the global economic crisis, which caused a shrinking of the global
economy. In 2011, unemployment rate in the general population was nearly
24 per cent with youth unemployment reaching nearly 50 per cent. But as
today overall unemployment has declined to less than 20 per cent
(Actually about 15 per cent in the first half of 2014 according to
National Bureau of Statistics) and youth unemployment has gone down to
less than 38 per cent. Though these changes may not look as dramatic as
we would wish, they have occurred by two-pronged approach pursued by
Jonathan – supporting a revival of the agricultural, industrial,
entertainment, and several other sectors of the economy to provide
opportunities for absorbing the youth from the private sector angle and
the various efforts being made to create jobs in the public sector,
especially through the various safety net projects of the Subsidy
Reinvestment and Empowerment Program (SURE-P). From the Community,
Social Women and Youth Employment (CSWYE) Programme, over 180, 000
youth and women have been employed, over 10, 000 health workers
(midwives, nurses and community health workers) have been employed, over
5, 000 youths have been trained through the Technical Vocational
Educational Training in different skills and vocations and deployed to
several industries, while 15, 000 have been employed by FERMA in road
repairs and vegetation control, nearly 50, 000 hitherto unemployed
graduates have been given jobs through the Graduate Internship Scheme
(GIS) across the nation. The YOUWIN programme has enabled several young
Nigerians (especially women) to receive grant from the Federal Ministry
of Finance to set up new businesses through which they have employed
other youths. The determined implementation of the local content law in
the oil and gas and else where in the economy has created more jobs and
more wealth for Nigerians. If these efforts to create jobs directly and
indirectly that have led to measurable improvement in the unemployment
rate over the last four years do not amount to good economic management,
then tell me what is.
Pro-business policies/ programmes
Jonathan’s government has introduced several policies and programmes
that are supportive of businesses, especially local production. The
pro-agric policies and programmes are well-advertised, making it
possible for a new generation of agric entrepreneurs (nagropreneurs ) to
obtain loans at nine per cent in addition to unprecedented support to
agriculture with a focus on developing the agriculture value chain. I
already referred to the higher level of local food production, which has
helped to moderate inflation. There is a new industrial revolution
policy, which is focusing on supporting local industrial output. We have
seen unprecedented expansion in the cement Industry, which is taking
the country to the level of self-sufficiency in cement production with
possibility of exporting the excess in the near future. Have we soon
forgotten the cement armada spectacle where our ports were clogged with
cement import from all over the world?
Like it or not, the local auto industry is coming back to life with
the new National Auto Policy, which seeks to discourage unbridled
importation of all kinds of automobiles from all over the world. Many of
the world ‘auto companies have started to invest in local production
plants.
This industrial revival and upgrade is happening in many industries,
including mine – the pharmaceutical – where the Federal Government has
supported a number of local manufacturers to obtain the WHO GMP
certification in the last one year, which hitherto had been practically
impossible.
The Privatisation and the deregulation policy, which Jonathan has
been ‘forcefully’ implementing, has virtually transferred electric power
management to the private sector. Though the level of expected
improvement has not been attained, we have brought the 15-year story of
unbundling NEPA to a closure, with reasonable expectation that new
investment will flow to truly sort out our electric power needs,
especially if government finally sells the transmission infrastructure. I
believe the deregulation of the downstream petroleum sector will be
completed soon and the multiplier effect on the economy will be
unleashed. I could go on and on.
Some people who are reading this and who may have joined the
bandwagon of those who say nothing is happening in the economy or that
Jonathan is clueless, may be angry at me and may think that I am
campaigning. But these are facts, which are verifiable. Yes, these may
not be the best possible but we must acknowledge what is the correct
situation. Jonathan may have questions to answer concerning security or
other issues, but on the economy, my verdict is that he has done well,
though could do better. My Bible says: “Woe unto them that call evil
good and good evil, …that put bitter for sweet and sweet for bitter
.”.May God have mercy.
• Mazi Ohuabunwa is former chairman of Nigeria Economic Summit Group.
For me, the fight against corruption will get strong fillip when we
remove the power of discretion and patronage from these sectors through
privatisation and deregulation . Since we deregulated
telecommunications, corruption in that sector has died and been buried.
That is more effective than sending 10 Managing Directors of NITEL to
Kirikiri. Not that I am opposed to punishing the guilty, I am saying
that corruption in power is in ‘coma’ now and that in oil and gas will
soon be gasping for breath when we fully deregulate the sector. When we
bury the ‘big’ corruption in these sectors by these policies that take
the power of discretion from public servants, we can easily deal with
‘smaller’ corruption in government bureaucracy and the private sector.
The level of policy inconsistency and flip-flops we used to see in
the economy in the past has significantly declined, creating more
confidence and attracting more investments into the country with Nigeria
receiving the highest Foreign Direct Investment ( FDI) in Africa in the
last two years or so despite slowing down in oil and Gas and the
Security scare not withstanding .
I could go on and on. I have said nothing about the massive
investment in rehabilitating major highways and rail lines in our
country. Last December, I travelled to Kwale from Lagos in five and half
hours and travelled by rail from Port Harcourt to Imo River. The last
time I did that was in 1992. The trains are running again and the long
delayed major road projects like the East -West Road, the Abuja- Lokoja,
Benin-Shagamu, Onitsha-Enugu-PH, Kano-Maiduguri and the Lagos-Ibadan
Expressway are all nearing completion with significant portions now
open to traffic. Have I said anything about the miracle of remodeling 18
Nigerian airports in one season, with most of them fully completed. The
impact of good roads and other modes of transportation to any economy
are too obvious for any further elaboration.
Some people who are reading this and who may have joined the
bandwagon of those who say nothing is happening in the economy or that
Jonathan is clueless, may be angry at me and may think that I am
campaigning. But these are facts, which are verifiable. Yes, these may
not be the best possible but we must acknowledge what is the correct
situation. Jonathan may have questions to answer concerning security or
other issues, but on the economy, my verdict is that he has done well,
though could do better. My Bible says: “Woe unto them that call evil
good and good evil, …that put bitter for sweet and sweet for bitter
.”.May God have mercy.
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